Introduction
NavigaTE is a simulation model that projects how the global fleet may evolve under various conditions. It is developed to provide insights into shipping’s transition towards net-zero emissions.
The NavigaTE model simulates the development of the global fleet by imitating the industry’s decision-making on newbuilding, retrofitting, and fueling of vessels. By tracking these decisions, the model can estimate if a given set of economic, technological, and regulatory conditions are likely to lead global shipping towards net-zero emissions by 2050. Furthermore, the model can be used to quantify the transition impact of e.g., novel technologies, regulatory levers, fuel availability constraints, and the timing thereof.
The NavigaTE model covers shipping’s entire value chain from fuel feedstocks to vessel operations. This end-to-end view allows the model to indicate which constraints are likely to determine the transition pace for shipping.
It is important to remember that NavigaTE is only a model. It uses general methods for predicting complex human behavior and does not account for all possible options. Therefore, the results should be interpreted qualitatively, not quantitatively. Hence, NavigaTE only brings value when the results are analyzed and put into a broader context.